Three barrels of oil announced the third quarterly report, and the refining and chemical business is still "crying out for pain"
although the loss of the refining business is a fait accompli, the upstream mining and downstream retail businesses are enough to make up for the loss of the refining business. For the 'petrochemical giants', whether the fourth quarter can achieve good results also depends on the rise and fall of downstream business and international oil prices. "
"three barrels of oil" is not bad for money. On October 30, after studying the third quarter financial reports released by PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC last week, the international finance news found that, except for CNOOC, which did not publish net profit data, only the two "petrochemical companies" earned an average of more than 600million yuan per day in the first three quarters of this year (equivalent to the average daily net profit of ICBC), ranking among the top A-share listed companies
however, some analysts believe that the success of "three barrels of oil" is due to the "big plate" - Sinopec spokesman Huang Wensheng said in an interview with voice of China evening peak a few days ago that Sinopec had 1450 billion yuan of assets, 1960 billion yuan of sales revenue and 70billion yuan of profits last year, that is, the return on assets is less than 5%, the sales profit rate is 3.5%, and "when we sell 100 yuan of products, we can only have a return on profits of 3.5 yuan"
differentiation in the upstream
as an important representative of Chinese enterprises' going global, "three barrels of oil" has been expanding upstream exploration and production business in Africa, South America and other places in recent years. This has become one of their most important sources of profit
data show that PetroChina's oil and gas production in the first three quarters increased by 5.1% year-on-year, of which overseas oil and gas business increased by 22.6% year-on-year. Compared with PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC performed slightly worse. According to the financial report, in the previous three quarters, the output of Sinopec's overseas business fell sharply year-on-year due to the impact of maintenance, but the medium digital display meter is well known by many users because of its simplicity, and the oil and gas output of Sinopec still increased year-on-year
CNOOC's production was affected by the oil spill accident in Penglai oilfield. "Affected by the natural decline of some oil fields and the temporary shutdown of production in Penglai oilfield, the company achieved a net output of 80.9 million barrels of oil equivalent in the third quarter of 2011, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% by turning off the main motor source." CNOOC said
"despite the differentiation of business, the 'three barrels of oil' has been taken care of by peripheral conditions." Lin Boqiang, director of the China energy economy research center of Xiamen University, told the international finance news, "the overall high level of international oil prices in the first three quarters of this year has ensured its earnings in exploration and exploitation business."
CNOOC said, "thanks to the rise in oil and gas prices, the company achieved unaudited oil and gas sales revenue of about 46.26 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. In this quarter, the company achieved an average oil price of $112.04 per barrel, a sharp increase of 50.3% year-on-year. The average gas price was $5.18 per thousand cubic feet, an increase of 20.0% year-on-year." The exploration and production profit of PetroChina was 160.791 billion yuan, an increase of 40.4% over the same period last year
midstream is still at a loss
the refining and chemical business in the midstream sector has always been the most "painful" business of "three barrels of oil". According to the previous statement of "three barrels of oil", as long as the international oil price exceeds $90/barrel, it will lose money in refining and chemical business
just as "three barrels of oil" has always emphasized, its refining and chemical business revenue in the third quarter has not improved. PetroChina made it clear that the oil refining and chemical industry sector suffered an operating loss of 38.403 billion yuan in the first three quarters, of which the oil refining business suffered a huge loss of 41.539 billion yuan. According to Zhou Jiping, President of PetroChina, PetroChina may lose as much as 50billion yuan in its refining business this year
Sinopec didn't "state" the specific amount of the loss, but said, "the company overcame the adverse effects of inadequate product oil prices and large refining losses in the first three quarters, and the daily processing volume of crude oil was 4.37 million barrels, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year."
and Sinopec spokesman Huang Wensheng also said publicly a few days ago that the poor performance of the "oil refining sector" is mainly due to the cost problem. "China's dependence on foreign crude oil is very high, and most of it depends on imports. Since this year, Sinopec has purchased according to the international crude oil price, while most of its sales targets are in China (the domestic gasoline and diesel prices have not been adjusted in place), which greatly increases the cost of crude oil"
Huang Wensheng also revealed that at present, Sinopec's oil refining business "minus the cost of oil refining is minus 3.81 yuan per ton"
however, according to the data released by the national development and Reform Commission last Wednesday, the loss of China's oil refining industry from January to August this year was 1.87 billion yuan
for CNOOC, Credit Suisse pointed out in an earlier report, "CNOOC will not be dragged down by the loss of refining business as it uses a large amount of oil on aircraft with carbon fiber composites, which does not involve the production of refined oil."
strong downstream growth
in Lin Boqiang's view, although the loss of the oil refining business is a fait accompli, the upstream mining and downstream retail businesses are enough to make up for the loss of the oil refining business
learned that in retail business, the performance of "petrochemical companies" is "very strong". Data shows that PetroChina's operating profit in the first three quarters increased by nearly 60% year-on-year. While ensuring the growth of domestic business, Sinopec's overseas refined oil sales also increased significantly
"for the 'petrochemical giants', whether the fourth quarter can achieve good results also depends on the rise and fall of downstream business and international oil prices." Lin Boqiang points 6. Pay attention to the anti rust oil analysis on the surface of the polished rod every three months. "As far as the current situation is concerned, on the one hand, the international oil price has risen, and the oil refining business continues to suffer losses or is inevitable; on the other hand, if the international oil price continues to rise, the relevant departments can raise the oil price of finished products again, which will alleviate the losses of the 'petrochemical giants' in the oil refining business."
the analysis report released by Andersen securities recently said, "in view of the decline in the price of chemical products, Sinopec lowered its profit forecast for 2012 and 2013 to 0.94 yuan and 1.06 yuan." However, Andersen securities also said, "due to the low valuation and stable profit of Sinopec, it still has high relative income in the current environment, so it maintains the 'overweight -a' rating."
for the future performance of PetroChina, Reuters also analyzed the other day that its profit outlook in the fourth quarter was mainly determined by the refining business. "Because, while the domestic refined oil price has been lowered, the international crude oil price has rebounded. This has put pressure on refiners."
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